Which Tory leadership candidates met their own expectations?
Public endorsements: 84 MPs
First ballot result: 114 MPs
Johnson's primary task was a simple one: delivering at least as many votes as he had public endorsements, if not more. Though his position going into the ballot looked unassailable, past frontrunners – most notably Michael Portillo in 2001 – have been undone for their failure to match their number of public pledges. His spinners were appropriately conservative in their predictions ahead of this afternoon's declaration. Yes, they predicted a strong first place finish. They also expected to overshoot their public tally with the votes of whips and vice chairs, who cannot openly endorse other candidates. But the actual result blew their prediction of a finish in the high 80s – with Jeremy Hunt in the 70s – out of the water. Grant Shapps, Johnson's number-cruncher-in-chief, got the number bang on. Helpfully, it puts the squeeze on Dominic Raab – the only other no-dealer left in the race.
Public endorsements: 39 MPs
First ballot result: 43 MPs
After Michael Gove's apparent implosion over the weekend, the foreign secretary had appeared to establish himself as the clear leader among the cabinet ministers in the running. His supporters hoped that his frontrunner status among those vying for second place would be borne out by this afternoon's result, though some confessed to being happy with third. Like Matt Hancock, however, Hunt's best case scenario relied on a Gove collapse that never materialised. His supporters are nonetheless making much of his second place finish – and the fact that he commanded more support than Hancock and Sajid Javid combined. But the reality is that finishing just six votes north of Gove leaves him in a more vulnerable position than some in his camp had expected.
Public endorsements: 35 MPs
First ballot result: 37 MPs
The environment secretary's hellish week, which began after he admitted using cocaine in his twenties to last Saturday's Daily Mail, had given the campaigns of other cabinet ministers hope. Supporters of Matt Hancock and Sajid Javid had encouraged talk of defections from the Gove camp in recent days. The hope, if not the expectation, was not that they would beat Gove – rather that he would come in short of his public declarations. That he exceeded them has convinced allies that his campaign is not only a going concern, but well-placed to leapfrog Jeremy Hunt into second.
Public endorsements: 23 MPs
First ballot results: 27 MPs
A study in the tyranny of high expectations. Just a fortnight ago Conservative MPs spoke as if a run-off featuring Raab and Boris Johnson was inevitable. But as Johnson swept up endorsements from all wings of the party – including the bulk of the European Research Group, the pool in which Raab was also fishing – his momentum stalled. The modest differential between his public tally and his result will do nothing to disabuse colleagues of the impression that he is going nowhere. Though within touching distance of the 32-vote threshold candidates must meet to progress from the second ballot, even supporters know his path to the membership is now impassable.
Public endorsements: 19 MPs
First ballot result: 23 MPs
The home secretary, for so long talked up by the media as one of the favourites, had a laggardly start to the race. His path to contention relied, as Matt Hancock's did, on his appearing to be the main beneficiary of slippage from the Gove camp. After confounding expectations with a strong launch yesterday, Team Javid hoped to create a sense of insurgency. That did not happen but spirits are nonetheless higher than might be expected. Having posted what one manfully spun as a "strong fifth place", Javid's supporters insist he is not out of the running, pointing to the net gain he made on his public endorsements. That no cabinet minister has a commanding lead has given them a perhaps misplaced sense of hope.
Public endorsements: 17 MPs
First ballot results: 20 MPs
The health secretary has struggled to make serious headway and entered the first ballot with a survival strategy predicated on two things. The first was that Michael Gove would slump. Instead he made modest gains. The second was that Rory Stewart would fail to reach 16 MPs, leaving a sizeable windfall for Hancock in the second round. Instead the International Development Secretary mustered 19 votes – just one short of Hancock. He is now battling fiercer headwinds than his team anticipated.
Public endorsements: 8 MPs
First ballot results: 19 MPs
After the close of nominations on Monday, the international development secretary insisted he had not squeaked onto the ballot paper on borrowed votes and insisted that he had enough private pledges to make the second ballot. By last night, however, his hopes had fallen to such an extent that he took to the Sun to beg colleagues to provide the final couple of votes he needed to reach the threshold of 16 MPs. Stewart maintained a lonely vigil outside Committee Room 12, where his colleagues cast their votes, and in the end delivered on what had begun to sound like a rather hasty prediction. In doing so he has fulfilled the goal he set himself at the outset: reaching the first televised debate.
Public endorsements: 8 MPs
First ballot result: 10 MPs