Commentary: After a five-year hiatus, why the Rajapaksas are back in power in Sri Lanka
SINGAPORE: Sri Lankas presidential election held on Saturday (Nov 16) saw former Defence Secretary G..
SINGAPORE: Sri Lankas presidential election held on Saturday (Nov 16) saw former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa elected as its seventh president with 52.25 per cent of the votes.
Rajapaksa, a former military leader personnel and a tech whiz, edged out his main contender Sajith Premadasa of the United National Party (UNP), a career politician of around 20 years, who secured 41.99 per cent of the votes.
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FILE PHOTO: Sajith Premadasa, Sri Lanka's presidential candidate of the ruling United National Party (UNP) led New Democratic Front alliance shows his inked finger after casting his vote during the presidential election in Weerawila, Sri Lanka November 16, 2019. REUTERS/Stringer
RAJAPAKSAS BACK IN OFFICE
This election was arguably the most dynamic, competitive and hard-fought with a record number of 35 candidates who filed their nominations for the top position.
However, it was a two-horse contest from the beginning, in which Premadasa was the strongest opponent facing Rajapaksa.
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Rajapaksa is no stranger to government in Sri Lanka. He has a proven track record from his previous portfolios as the Secretary of Defence and Secretary of Urban Development and Planning between 2005 and 2015, in which he earned a reputation as a doer.
It was under his watch that the government defeated the Tamil separatist movement, which had plunged the country into 25 years of civil conflict.
READ: Rajapaksas eye comeback in Sri Lanka presidential election
His previous term coincided with his brother Mahindas tenure as president.
Sri Lankan presidential candidate Gotabhaya Rajapakse (left) with his brother, former president Mahinda Rajapakse during a press conference in Colombo. (AFP/ISHARA S. KODIKARA)
Due to a constitutional clause, the popular older Rajapaksa brother was not allowed to run for the office of president again. But it is widely expected that Gotabaya will appoint him as prime minister, putting the Rajapaksas back at the forefront of Sri Lankas top political office after a five-year hiatus.
ANTI INCUMBENCY
Gotabaya Rajapaksas victory was largely a result of strong anti-incumbency sentiments against the government.
As had been expected, national security and economic development were the two key issues that dominated the presidential election and were likely to have swung the pendulum in favour of Rajapaksa.
SLUGGISH GROWTH
It is no secret that the incumbent government has performed poorly. Sri Lankas annual economic growth has consistently declined over the last term of government – from 5 per cent in 2015, to 4.5 per cent in 2016 and to 3.1 per cent in 2017. The unprecedented political and constitutional crisis in 2018 dampened the economy to its slowest growth in 17 years at 3.2 per cent.
Sri Lanka's crucial tourism industry took a heavy hit after the Easter attacks. (Photo: AFP/ISHARA S. KODIKARA)
The World Bank has said that for 2019, Sri Lanka is estimated to come in as the second worst performing country in South Asia at 2.7 per cent, ahead of only Afghanistan. Its smaller and less-developed neighbours – Bhutan, Maldives and Nepal – are estimated to grow faster this year.
NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS
It is not only Sri Lankas economy that has taken a beating after the devastating Easter Sunday attacks in April 2019 in the country that killed more than 250 people and injured many more.
Its national security has also been a major source of concern for Sri Lankans due to the failure of authorities to act upon warnings from Muslim communities against growing Islamic radicalisation in the eastern part of the country.
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The government has also been blamed for failing to respond to intelligence received from multiple foreign agencies on the possibility of the Easter bombings.
This has renewed calls for a stronger intelligence and military apparatus, which had been partially dismantled by the incumbent government.
The damaged tiles where the explosion happened are seen at the Saint Sebastian's church, one of the churches attacked in the April 21st Easter Sunday bombings, in Negombo, Sri Lanka Jun 3, 2019. (Photo: REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte)
Coincidentally, these key issues play to Gotabayas strengths, his established track-record and strong credentials in defence.
POLARISED ELECTORATE
The results from Saturdays polls, however, reveal an alarming polarisation of Sri Lanka along ethnic lines.
Voting patterns suggest a vast difference in the key priorities for the Sinhalese-dominated south and the Tamil-inhabited north.
Southern voters have indicated that stability and strong leadership are the most pressing matters to them as they voted overwhelmingly for Rajapaksa.
The political instability in the last governments term, which led to poor economic performance and national security lapses, would have weighed heavily on their minds.
However, the overwhelming rejection Rajapaksa received from the northern and the eastern parts of the island reveal concerns with his alleged human rights track record.
Both Gotabaya and his brother Mahinda have been accused of human rights violations and state-sponsored disappearances, in the militarys move to end the civil war 10 years ago.
Although their government then had managed to successfully rehabilitate around 12,000 ex-separatist combatants, resettle around 700,000 displaced persons, and made attempts to address their grievances through the Lessons Learnt Commission of Sri Lanka, these efforts have been overshadowed by these allegations of human rights violations.