Mark Rutte’s last dance :-: Politics

Politics

THE HAGUE — Can the Dutch center hold?

That’s the question many will be asking as the Netherlands finally forms a new government after more than six months of sluggish coalition negotiations.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte is due to officially announce early next week that he will lead a government made up of four parties with vastly different political beliefs. In other words, it’s going to be a typical Dutch affair.

But don’t expect much high-fiving. The uneasy coalition Rutte has cobbled together might well be his last act in Dutch politics.

The prime minister’s political career and the fate of the Dutch model of governing by consensus are both on the line.

Rutte, a fiscal conservative, has been the face of the Dutch model for the past seven years. He governed with the support of far-right rabble-rouser Geert Wilders from 2010-2012, and, for the past five years, in a coalition with the Labor Party (PvdA).

Now he’s embarked on an even bolder experiment. He has managed to force two extremely different parties to join his administration: the liberal democratic D66, culturally the most progressive political force in the country; and the Christian Union (CU), a party made up of evangelical Christians.

A single vote of dissidence could be enough to bring down Rutte’s third administration.

The D66 party was behind internationally ground-breaking legislation to legalize gay marriage and euthanasia for the terminally ill. The party has since called for expanding the right to euthanasia to those tired of living. It is also a vigorous supporter of a stronger, more centralized European Union.

The evangelicals, on the other hand, lean left on economic issues but strongly oppose abortion and euthanasia. In the past, the party has voiced its support for a Dutch exit from the eurozone in its current form.

Bringing these parties under the umbrella of a new government was close to impossible.

In the opaque Dutch coalition- building process — in which negotiations take place behind closed doors — Rutte’s efforts took several dramatic turns. At one point, Alexander Pechtold, the D66 party’s leader, publicly refused to govern with the CU.

The parties ultimately compromised on the EU and cultural issues, but the process created bad blood between the two coalition partners, and relations have been touchy and fragile since.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, before coalition talks last August | Robin Utrecht/AFP via Getty Images

The details of the deal are still unknown, but the evangelical party will most likely accept the eurozone as it is and tolerate the liberal democrats’ push to further expand the right to euthanasia — for now. They are widely expected to leave the coalition in the unlikely situation D66 succeeds in passing the legislation.

The rocky relationship between the two parties is likely to make governing more difficult, as the new four-party government — also joined by the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) — rests on a one-seat majority in both houses of parliament.

A single vote of dissidence could be enough to bring down Rutte’s third administration. And it is widely known in Dutch political circles that opposition is already brewing among some of the four parties.

Rutte, who built himself a reputation for smoothly getting opposing politicians to cooperate, is now in many ways experiencing the downside of his success.

Parties that served in a government under his leadership all suffered terrible losses in the first national election after governing with Rutte. As a result, after Rutte’s conservative-liberal Party for Freedom and Democracy once again became the country’s largest, most political leaders were wary of working with him again.

Cooperation between the liberal democrats and the evangelicals turned out to be Rutte’s only option to build a majority government. The only reason the four parties have found themselves in the same room is that they lacked alternatives.

Rutte recently said he wouldn’t rule out running for a fourth term as prime minister. But leading members of his party expect this term to be his last. And given the frail nature of this government, things could go south for him before it ends.

The big question then becomes: Can Rutte’s governing style of consensus-building — very much a Dutch tradition — survive?

His new administration will largely be seen as a center-right coalition. But neither the left nor the right will be likely to go easy on the prime minister, given that parties on both sides suffered spectacular losses after working with him.

Fifteen years after the Netherlands became one of the first Western European countries to see a populist uprising, personified by the late politician Pim Fortuyn, the center of Dutch politics will come under attack as never before.

Rutte’s refusal to consider governing with Wilders allows the Dutch firebrand to frame the weakness of the new administration.

The Dutch left, traditionally a strong proponent of consensus politics, suffered a historic defeat in March that left it weaker than ever.

Combined, the three left-wing parties now represent less than a quarter of the Dutch electorate. As left-wing voters grow tired of the left’s unwillingness to work together, the parties are seeking to boost their image by frantically opposing the new government.

There’s more bad news for Rutte on the right, his party’s political base. Far-right agitator Geert Wilders may have lost his challenge to Rutte in March, but his Party for Freedom has become the second-largest political force in the country.

Rutte’s refusal to consider governing with Wilders allows the Dutch firebrand to frame the weakness of the new administration as a result of Rutte’s unwillingness to build a staunch right-wing government.

And for those right-wing voters who have grown tired of Wilders — he has been in parliament for almost 20 years — a new, young face of anti-EU nationalism has emerged.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte makes a speech following his victory in the Dutch general election | Carl Court/Getty Images

Thierry Baudet is a young academic with an agenda that combines democratization — “break the party cartel” — with staunch opposition to immigration and the EU, as well as a more moderate position on Islam.

Baudet has done very well in the polls ever since his new party — Forum for Democracy — won two seats in March. His rise makes it likely there will be two viable parties attacking Rutte’s new government from the right.

The newcomer’s popularity also raises the prospect that Rutte’s party will show an eagerness to move to the right to avoid losing voters to his competitors, further complicating the sustainability of the new government.

Rutte has subverted expectations countless times. But this time around, his considerable political skills may not be enough to win the battle for the Dutch model.

Tom-Jan Meeus is a political columnist for NRC Handelsblad.

Original Article