Commentary: China doesnt need global trade to keep growing

HONG KONG: The Peoples Republic of China celebrated the 70th anniversary of its founding last month with impressive military and civilian parades meant to showcase the extraordinary progress the country has made under the leadership of the Communist Party of China.

Formidable challenges lie ahead. But Chinas record so far, and the resources it has at its disposal, indicate that it may well be up to the task.

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UNDENIABLE ACHIEVEMENTS

Chinas achievements are undeniable. In the last 40 years, it realised the fastest-ever sustained expansion by a major economy, enabling more than 850 million people to escape poverty.

As investment in infrastructure, science and technology, education, and health has expanded, living standards have skyrocketed.

READ: Commentary: A rising China is leaving behind rural villages

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But in the third quarter of 2019, China recorded just 6 per cent annual growth, the slowest since March 1992. And prospects for boosting that rate are limited, not least because the world is facing a synchronised slowdown.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its 2019 global growth estimate to 3 per cent, the lowest rate since the 2008 crisis.

A WORLD REJECTING ENGAGEMENT

The outside world is also increasingly rejecting engagement, with the United States leading the way. President Donald Trumps trade war has left no doubt that the US regards China as a strategic competitor, not a potential partner.

Some in the US now advocate a complete decoupling of the worlds two largest economies, unless China makes fundamental changes to its political system, economy, and foreign policy. China has not been the only victim of US protectionism; Trump has also targeted India, the European Union, and others.

So, beyond direct animosity from the US, China must contend with profound and unpredictable geopolitical and economic shifts, driven partly by a backlash against globalisation – the very process that enabled Chinas rise.

Chinese leaders have been working to counter that backlash by highlighting the benefits of international trade and cooperation. They have also reconfirmed their commitment to continued structural reform and opening up.

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READ: Commentary: Chinese leaders must convince others of Chinas peaceful rise

As a recent McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report showed, China has plenty of room for progress. The country accounts for 11 per cent of global trade in goods, but only 6 per cent of trade in services, underscoring the growth opportunities that a more developed services sector would provide.

Moreover, foreign ownership in Chinas banking, securities, and bond markets remains below 6 per cent. And while Chinese tourists made 150 million outbound trips in 2018, the country receives only 0.2 per cent of global migrant inflows.

Increased Chinese engagement with the rest of the world could, MGI estimates, generate US$22 trillion to US$37 trillion of value for the global economy by 2040.

In particular, China would benefit from import growth (US$3 to US$6 trillion), liberalisation of services (US$3 trillion to US$55 trillion), globalisation of financial markets (US$5 trillion to US$8 trillion), collaboration on providing global public goods (US$3 trillion to US$6 trillion), and flows of technology and innovation (US$8 trillion to US$12 trillion).

RESILIENCE OF CHINAS ECONOMY

This is not to say, however, that China needs the world, at least not as desperately as Trump and his advisers seem to believe.

While openness is in Chinas interest – and the interest of those with which it engages – recent trade hostilities have highlighted the Chinese economys resilience. In fact, given Chinas scale, there is enough domestic economic competition to continue driving progress, even without external engagement.

Few economies are large enough to test different development models in parallel, without worrying about systemic shocks. But that is precisely what China is doing.

Commentary: China must make its huge domestic market size a source of growth

DEVELOPMENT AND STIMULUS

China has a long tradition of experimentation and adaptation, with competition among cities, in particular, bringing development breakthroughs.

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