Push for power despite dicey numbers leaves BJP red-faced

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: BJP's costly misjudgment of Ajit Pawar's promise to deliver the numbers has earned the party criticism, coming on top of an almost replica fiasco in Karnataka in 2018.
In 2018, the Karnataka polls saw BJP fall short by seven MLAs and led to a bid to rope in opposition legislators, with B S Yediyurappa being sworn in as CM only to resign. In both cases, the Supreme Court ordered a floor test under the pro tem speaker, and the two (BSY and Devendra Fadnavis) resigned instead of seeking the trust vote. Coming just after the under-par performance in Maharashtra and Haryana and ahead of the tough Jharkhand match, questions will be asked about whether BJP was right in trusting Junior Pawar's claim that he had the numbers. Though Fadnavis said the plan was that of the state unit, the party brass is very much in the line of fire.
BJP may have underestimated NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar, perhaps because the latter, who had in an ideologyagnostic manner offered unconditional support to BJP in 2014, did not come around this time. He gave a clear impression he was opposed to a deal with BJP after a bitterly-fought poll where he and Fadnavis had targeted each other.
Internally, the leadership will argue it had to explore all means to avenge Sena's betrayal and to stop Maharashtra from falling into rivals' hands. And that sitting on the sidelines, even when Ajit appeared as a partner, while ally-turned-foe Sena walked off with the trophy, would also have made BJP a sorry sight.
Yet the tactics, though they failed, reflect the thinking of the BJP brass to make a bold push for power even when numbers were dicey. The tactics failed in Karnataka in the first instance but worked in the longer run. In Maharashtra, the large gap between BJP's 105 to the majority mark of 145 will, however, make a change in assembly numbers more difficult.
BJP sources say the party's initial plan was to accept the fallout of Sena's bickering and sit in the opposition. It felt the party would be the ultimate beneficiary as the three parties will run into inevitable difficulties in handling demands and conflicting interests in several regions of the state.
Before he quit, Fadnavis said at a presser at the Sahyadri guest house: "Ajit Pawar has submitted his resignation to me and now we don't have a majority. We are not into horse-trading. After this presser, I shall meet the governor and submit my resignation too." Fadnavis said Ajit had cited personal reasons for his inability to continue with BJP. Ajit, he said, had extended support unconditionally and only he would be able to answer why he withdrew support.
Fadnavis spoke of the sequence of events that led to BJP forming an alliance with Ajit, from Sena's first presser where it claimed "other options were open" to its demand for the CM's post for 2.5 years. "The mandate was clearly for the Mahayuti but BJP secured the most seats, becoming the single largest party. Its strike rate of 70% was much better than Sena's 42%. It was clear the people's mandate was for BJP," he said.
Seeing the numbers, Sena saw it as an opportunity and used it as a bargaining chip, he alleged. Even Amit Shah made it clear there had been no decision on sharing the CM's post, he added.
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